Originally Published: July 6, 2011, 01:19 AM

Gambler’s Fallacy Explained

Posted By Diego | Other News | July 6, 2011, 01:19 AM |

The gambler’s fallacy may sound like a complex concept, but when you look at it objectively, it really is not that difficult to understand. This is good, because it is a key idea in the world of online casino games and ignoring it can be quite costly for the gambler.

The Heart of the Gambler’s Fallacy

The gambler’s fallacy at its heart can be described as the belief that a single event can be more accurately predicted based on prior events. Of course, in some areas this may be true but in a gambling situation where the conditions are exactly the same each time, it is not. When you flip a fair coin, the odds it will come up heads are 50 percent, or 50-50, or 1-to-1, or 1-in-2. It does not matter how many times you flip it, the odds of any individual trial will always be the same.

While this seems obvious, it’s often hard to remember it in real life. If someone flipped a fair coin nine times in a row and in came up heads every time, you would be hard-pressed to believe the coin could come up heads a tenth time, if you knew the conditions were fair. Yet such a scenario could happen, and while the against ten heads in a row are astronomical, the odds of a tenth head after nine heads have already appeared are still 50-50.

Applying the Gambler’s Fallacy

The application of this comes in gambling games where one has seen an anomalous pattern of results. Human beings are always looking for patterns and explanations so if something happens that looks like a pattern, it is our tendency to ascribe meaning to it. If red comes up on the roulette wheel ten times in a row, we want to put all our money on black because we believe it must be “due.” Alternatively we may want to put all our money on red because red is “hot.” In blackjack, if we get 3 straight 21s after the third card, we tend to believe that our streak will not end. All these assumptions are wrong.

Remembering the Gambler’s Fallacy

When you’re playing a casino game, remember, that both losing streaks, winning streaks and streaks of particular results can last much longer than you might expect. Make your bets based on the odds, not any imagined pattern or trend.

Embed The gambler’s fallacy may sound like a complex concept, but when you look at it objectively, it really is not that difficult to understand. This is good, because it is a key idea in the world of online casino games and ignoring it can be quite costly for the gambler. <br><br> The Heart of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy">Gambler’s Fallacy</a> <br><br> The gambler’s fallacy at its heart can be described as the belief that a single event can be more accurately predicted based on prior events. Of course, in some areas this may be true but in a gambling situation where the conditions are exactly the same each time, it is not. When you flip a fair coin, the odds it will come up heads are 50 percent, or 50-50, or 1-to-1, or 1-in-2. It does not matter how many times you flip it, the odds of any individual trial will always be the same. <br><br> While this seems obvious, it’s often hard to remember it in real life. If someone flipped a fair coin nine times in a row and in came up heads every time, you would be hard-pressed to believe the coin could come up heads a tenth time, if you knew the conditions were fair. Yet such a scenario could happen, and while the against ten heads in a row are astronomical, the odds of a tenth head after nine heads have already appeared are still 50-50. <br><br> Applying the Gambler’s Fallacy <br><br> The application of this comes in gambling games where one has seen an anomalous pattern of results. Human beings are always looking for patterns and explanations so if something happens that looks like a pattern, it is our tendency to ascribe meaning to it. If red comes up on the roulette wheel ten times in a row, we want to put all our money on black because we believe it must be “due.” Alternatively we may want to put all our money on red because red is “hot.” In blackjack, if we get 3 straight 21s after the third card, we tend to believe that our streak will not end. All these assumptions are wrong. <br><br> Remembering the Gambler’s Fallacy <br><br> When you’re playing a casino game, remember, that both losing streaks, winning streaks and streaks of particular results can last much longer than you might expect. Make your bets based on the odds, not any imagined pattern or trend. <br /><a href='http://www.poker-playing.org'>Poker</a> | <a href='http://www.poker-playing.org/Other/Gamblers-Fallacy-Explained'>Gambler’s Fallacy Explained</a>